News from: http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine-foreign-minister-peaceful-solution-is-priority/1867021.html
My opinion:
First of all, I’d like to talk about the
legitimacy of Crimean independence. The premise of Crimean independence is that
they have to get the approval of the central government. If the central
government does not approve the thought of independence, there will be countless
public protests. Then, the government will suppress the riot by force of arms,
and it’s the worst situation it can be. It’s so-called civil war. After the
battle between government and the radical, if the government loses, the
independence will become a war. In the meanwhile, if the radical lose, they are
going to face the sentence of betrayal. The worst result is that both sides did
not have the winner, the war will become massacre. They have to negotiate with
the other side, and end up with draw or national disruption. In this news, if Russia
makes a forced occupation, the so-called plebiscite is not legal, and will not
get the national approval, even if the government loses the war. On the other
hand, the intruders will be sentenced heavily. The occupied country can ask national
help.
Secondly, the future of Crimean independence is also worth of discussing. In my opinion,
attended to the result of Crimean plebiscite this time, if this news is the
prologue of Russian approval for the plebiscite, this situation will be exactly
the same as Saddam Hussein’s annexation of Kuwait . If there’s going to have a
war between Ukraine and Crimea, without the Russian support, there’s no way for
Crimea to win the war, so we may think this news is good for Crimea; however,
it’s not as simple as we thought it is, this could become double-edged
situation. Assumed that Russia
is going to have a war with Ukraine
in public, America
and NATO must have action. In that case, Russia
will lose completely even if Russia
gets the support from China .
Last but not least, the influence of this
news to Taiwan
is also a question we can think about. If the situation happens like above, Ukraine must become the side of America
and NATO. In this case, China
will lose their army support from Ukraine , especially on Chinese aviation
industry. On the other hand, Chine have to explain their claim of not involve
in the politics of other country. Their support will become heavy influence in
the future.
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