[Chronicle of Events (大事記)] If You Know This World.

News from: http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine-foreign-minister-peaceful-solution-is-priority/1867021.html

My opinion:

     Nowadays, most of us are living at his ease indoors without any awareness of the dark side in part of the world. As we are claim that it’s a world that we called it global village, we should put more emphasize on the events happening in other countries. Only if we can stand out for the underprivileged minority, will this world become better.

     First of all, I’d like to talk about the legitimacy of Crimean independence. The premise of Crimean independence is that they have to get the approval of the central government. If the central government does not approve the thought of independence, there will be countless public protests. Then, the government will suppress the riot by force of arms, and it’s the worst situation it can be. It’s so-called civil war. After the battle between government and the radical, if the government loses, the independence will become a war. In the meanwhile, if the radical lose, they are going to face the sentence of betrayal. The worst result is that both sides did not have the winner, the war will become massacre. They have to negotiate with the other side, and end up with draw or national disruption. In this news, if Russia makes a forced occupation, the so-called plebiscite is not legal, and will not get the national approval, even if the government loses the war. On the other hand, the intruders will be sentenced heavily. The occupied country can ask national help.

      Secondly, the future of Crimean independence is also worth of discussing. In my opinion, attended to the result of Crimean plebiscite this time, if this news is the prologue of Russian approval for the plebiscite, this situation will be exactly the same as Saddam Hussein’s annexation of Kuwait. If there’s going to have a war between Ukraine and Crimea, without the Russian support, there’s no way for Crimea to win the war, so we may think this news is good for Crimea; however, it’s not as simple as we thought it is, this could become double-edged situation. Assumed that Russia is going to have a war with Ukraine in public, America and NATO must have action. In that case, Russia will lose completely even if Russia gets the support from China.

     Last but not least, the influence of this news to Taiwan is also a question we can think about. If the situation happens like above, Ukraine must become the side of America and NATO. In this case, China will lose their army support from Ukraine, especially on Chinese aviation industry. On the other hand, Chine have to explain their claim of not involve in the politics of other country. Their support will become heavy influence in the future.